On the CMI model FAQ page, you could find answers to commonly asked questions about the ∆P INDEX U.S. ECONOMY REPORT subscription plan, get information about the CMI model and learn more about the aspects that are influential to the ∆P INDEX.
What are the CMI model’s competitive advantages?
What is the ∆P index U.S. economy report?
What kind of information can I expect to receive in the ∆P index U.S. Economy REPORT?
The CMI ∆P INDEX U.S. economy report includes:
- ∆P index graph with an explanation of how to read that
- The Lead time notification about Economic shock if any is coming or early signals about the recession ends
- Comments on US financial indices
The report can be sent in parts because we minimize delivery time, update information as we receive incoming data, and inform subscribers as soon as we can.
Download a sample report on the U.S. economy with the CMI ∆P index here.
What subscription plans do you offer?
We offer the following ∆P index U.S. economy report subscription plans:
- an annual subscription plan with a one-time payment
- an annual subscription plan for a group of 4 or more from one enterprise
- the latest active report
An annual subscription is a money saver because you pay for 304 days, but you get access to reports for 365 days as part of your subscription. And that allows you to be informed of macroeconomic trends and economic shocks for at least 404 days from the start of the subscription. So you get a bonus of 100 days of information.
What is the ∆p index U.S. economy report publishing frequency?
What is the ∆p index U.S. Economy REPORT publishing frequency?
How often will I receive the ∆P index U.S. Economy REPORT?
You will receive the latest active ∆P index U.S. Economy REPORT within several business days of your subscription.
If you subscribed to an annual plan, after that, you will receive regular updates on the state of the U.S. economy on a monthly basis.
How do I subscribe to the ∆P index U.S. economy report?
You can subscribe to the ∆P index U.S. Economy REPORT by visiting our website https://econometrics.finance/what-we-offer/ and choosing a subscription plan. Once you have completed the payment, you will receive a confirmation email with further details.
How will I receive the ∆p index U.S. Economy REPORT?
How will I receive the ∆p index U.S. Economy REPORT?
The ∆P index U.S. Economy report is distributed digitally.
The report in PDF format could be sent to your personal email, which was used during payment or you will have access to the information portal. The distribution way will be described in the subscription plan confirmation email.
How long is the subscription plan duration valid?
SUBSCRIPTION PLAN DURATION
- Annual subscription to the ∆P index U.S. Economy REPORT is valid for 365 days from the date of procurement.
- The group subscription is also valid for 365 days. The same is true for a leap year.
- A latest active ∆P index U.S. Economy report valid within 30 days from the procurement date.
It is easy to count. The same is true for a leap year or a 31-day month.
Read more about the CMI ∆P INDEX U.S. economy report subscription here.
What happens if I am not satisfied with the ∆P index U.S. Economy report?
What happens if I am not satisfied with the ∆P index U.S. Economy report?
We are committed to providing our subscribers with high-quality content and analysis. If you are not satisfied with the ∆P index U.S. Economy REPORT, please contact us to discuss your concerns.
In your feedback, we expect you to provide reasoned information that will help us to improve customer awareness of the CMI model usage, highlight the CMI model or ∆P index dependence on economic events or political decisions or just simplify the report submission format.
Can I cancel my subscription at any time?
Can I cancel my subscription at any time?
While we hope that you will find the ∆P index U.S. Economy REPORT to be a valuable resource, you can cancel your subscription at any time. Please contact us for assistance with cancelling your subscription. In case of a subscription cancellation, your account and contact data will be deleted from the system. You will have no chance to reactivate it again and payment also will be not refunded. Therefore, make the decision to subscribe consciously. Read a sample report. Consider how you can use the information you receive as part of your subscription.
We are confident that the information you receive used in investment projects will be able to minimize risks, therefore, unsubscribing may be due to the facts of changing jobs, closing an enterprise, misunderstanding (for example if reports sent to you do not reach you due to technical or security reasons).
Do you have a disclaimer for the report?
Do you have a disclaimer for the report?
We provide an information service based on the CMI model, and you decide.
The information and resources provided by The CMI Model Econometrics are based on the CMI model and are not intended to be a representation or guarantee of future investment results.
Read more about the limitations of economic models here . And for deeper understanding check out empirical verification of the CMI model’s main principles here.
Investing involves risk and you should carefully consider all risks before making any investment decisions.
We are not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided by the ∆p index U.S. Economy REPORT.
By using our information and resources, you agree to hold the CMI Model Econometrics harmless from any and all losses, damages, or liabilities that may arise from your investment decisions. You also agree that the CMI Model Econometrics is not liable for any errors or omissions in the information provided on this website.
Do you have any restrictions for reposting the ∆P index U.S. Economy report?
Do you have any restrictions for reposting the ∆P index U.S. Economy report?
Restrictions for reposting the index ∆P report
The ∆p index U.S. Economy REPORT you have received by subscription is for your personal use only. You are not permitted to share, distribute, or reproduce any part of the report without prior written permission from the publisher or owner of the report. This includes but is not limited to, sharing the report with others via email, social media, posting it on any website or forum, or any other means of electronic or physical distribution.
You are also not permitted to use any part of the ∆P index U.S. Economy REPORT for commercial purposes, including but not limited to, selling or reselling the report or any information contained within it.
Any unauthorized use or distribution of the report is strictly prohibited and may result in legal action against you. If you wish to share or distribute the report, you must first obtain written permission from the publisher or owner of the report.
By subscribing to the report, you agree to these restrictions and acknowledge that any violation of these restrictions may result in the termination of your subscription and legal action against you.
Reposting: You are prohibited from reposting or sharing any part of the ∆P index U.S. Economy REPORT without the express written permission of our company. Read more in terms and conditions.
What is the main distinction of the CMI model from other ones?
What is the main distinction of the CMI model from other ones?
The main distinction of the CMI model
-The CMI model differs from other models as it has “a lead time period” that allows the use of information about the past for future predictions.
The lead time period in the US business cycle refers to the amount of time between the peak of economic expansion and the onset of a recession. This period is also known as the “warning period” or “lead indicator period.”
Read more about the lead time period in the meaning of CMI model econometrics here.
How does the CMI model lead time signals allow using the information of the past for future forecasting?
Official statistics information is typically delayed by three months. However, the CMI model’s lead time signals allow us to identify potential recession incentives six to nine months ahead of official statistics. This means that we can provide our subscribers with a valuable head start in making informed investment decisions and potentially avoiding losses associated with economic downturns.
What does “a lead time period” mean?
Definition of the Lead time period in the meaning of CMI model econometrics.
The CMI model’s lead time is a period of time which starts to notify by signals of potential economic shocks. It precious indicator, which allows making decisions earlier than others. See it in Fig 1. graph Empirical verification of the CMI model.
The lead time period in the US business cycle refers to the amount of time between the peak of economic expansion and the onset of a recession. This period is also known as the “warning period” or “lead indicator period.”
The length of the lead time period can vary depending on a range of factors, including the severity of the impending recession, the effectiveness of government policies in addressing economic challenges, and global economic conditions. In general, the lead time period is often several months to a year before the start of a recession, but it can be longer or shorter depending on the specific circumstances. The CMI models lead time signals to allow us to identify potential recession incentives three to nine months ahead of the actual economic shock that may cause a recession. This is because the model forecasts the result of economic activity and the incentives driving it. By identifying changes in thousands of parameters over time, the model can detect patterns that may signal a future economic downturn, providing subscribers with an early warning that can help them make more informed investment decisions.
Is it possible to see ∆P Index for past periods?
Is it possible to see ∆P Index for past periods?
Similar to financial indices that become freely available after their relevance has passed, we also offer free access to past ∆P index data on our website https://econometrics.finance. You can view graphs of the index for previous periods in posts such as “Empirical verification of the CMI model main principles“. By providing this data, we aim to offer transparency and help users evaluate the effectiveness of the CMI model. It could have been published with a delay of at least 18 months.
Do political risks affect the ∆P index?
Do political risks affect the ∆P index?
Yes, political risks can affect the ∆P index. The CMI model takes into account both endogenous and exogenous factors of influence.
Endogenous factors are those that originate within the economic system and are affected by the economic agents themselves, such as government policies on monetary and fiscal matters. For example, the political decision especially on the policy of quantitative easing.
Exogenous factors, on the other hand, originate outside the economic system and are beyond the control of economic agents, such as natural disasters or changes in global trade policies, and changes in terms of the supply of raw materials, goods, and technologies from other countries. For example, supply chain disruptions due to imperfect logistics service prices.
Political decisions can also impact exogenous factors, leading to a reaction or chain of events. For example, a political decision to impose tariffs on imported goods can lead to retaliatory actions from other countries, affecting the supply and demand for goods and materials, and ultimately impacting the ∆P index.
The CMI model’s ability to account for both endogenous (internal) and exogenous (external) factors allows it to provide a more accurate picture of the economy’s state, including the effects of political risks.
Does the ∆P index change over time compared to its value at the current moment?
Does the ∆P index change over time compared to its value at the current moment?
Yes, it is possible. The ∆P index is the result of the currently available information. If some incoming data are delayed or changed, we make a recalculation then it is available, and annual subscribers get an updated ∆P index value with the following report. From our experience, it could cause minor changes in the ∆P index value, because economic processes have inertia.
How can I register more than one email for the group subscription?
How can I register more than one email for the group subscription?
At the time of purchase, only one email address could be registered. Don’t worry, you will receive an email confirming the group subscription and instructions on how to register other group members. Requests to change group email addresses during the entire period can only be accepted from the email address registered at the time of the purchase.
Can I change the email address for the subscription?
Is it possible to change the email address for the subscription after procurement?
Unfortunately, this is not possible, because this procedure involves confirming the identity of the owner, as well as storing personal data, and confirming the transfer of rights to use the subscription in the event of a change of legal entity. And this leads to the risk of fraud. However, you can contact us and we will consider your request individually. In the event of a dispute over the change, the priority right remains with the one who appeals from the address used at the time of purchase of the subscription.